Should Bill Belichick Consider Accepting the Falcons Head Coaching Position if Offered?

Bill Belichick will be 72 years old in 2024, he has won more Super Bowls than any other coach in the history of the NFL at this point, whether as a head coach or an assistant coach. This begs the question, why would he consider accepting another head coaching position outside of New England after “mutually” parting ways? The truth is that there is one main motivating factor.

We have interviewed Bill Belichick for our head coach opening

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) January 16, 2024

One Monkey Left on his Back

I believe there is still one monkey left on Belichick’s back. At this point that is the thought that he cannot win as a head coach without Tom Brady as his quarterback. The critics will point to his time with the Cleveland Browns when he was the head coach for five seasons, and never had a winning record, they’ll point to recent years with Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, and others, manning the quarterback position when Belichick failed to win as well. They also… may have a case to make here, before he had Brady he was 41-55 in 6 seasons with zero winning records. He has gone 29-38 since Brady left, and produced just one winning season for a combined record of 70-93 over 10 seasons with just one playoff trip.

Coaching Against the Clock

At this point, it goes without mentioning that Bill Belichick doesn’t have many years left to continue coaching at the NFL level. He needs to choose his next step wisely. He is probably not the right coach for a long term rebuild. With that in mind, I believe his best option is the Atlanta Falcons for a few reasons. The main reason why I believe the Falcons are such a good landing spot for Bill Belichick at this point in his career is they currently do not have a set starting quarterback on their roster. This is a factor I expect to weigh on his decision with any team he chooses. While most coaches seek out quarterback stability, I believe Belichick will want a roster that looks primed to compete with the addition of good to great quarterback play.

Choosing a team that allows him the ability to handpick his next quarterback is realistically the ideal scenario for Belichick, to redeem himself, and do so in a quick manner. The Falcons are armed with more than enough trade ammunition to move up and select the top quarterback on Belichick‘s board especially with how the draft order has fallen in 2024. With Carolina cratering and ending up sending the pick to Chicago as a part of last year’s trade, the top overall pick is certainly on the trade block for the right price. Chicago could choose to trade Fields and keep the pick, but I personally believe that is the less likely scenario.

What Would a Trade Look Like?

Currently the Falcons hold the eighth overall pick in the 2024 draft. The Bears swapped picks with the Panthers for the rights to select Bryce Young, for the cost of:

WR Dj Moore

2023 9th overall pick

2023 2nd round pick

2024 1st round pick

2025 2nd round pick

The scenario and price has changed quite a bit since then, and for good reason. The Bears own the 1st overall pick, and the 9th overall pick. Between those two picks there are just three teams that could feasibly select a quarterback, and one of those is Atlanta, while the others are the Commanders at 2, and Patriots at 4. The Commanders could pass on drafting a quarterback with Sam Howell there.

The Falcons currently hold an extra 4th round pick and 6th round pick in this year’s draft with a total of 8 picks. They also have some players on the roster that could be used to sweeten the deal. Aj Terrell could be on the table as he would create a savings of over $12 million in the process.

Reason Number 2

The second and likely most obvious reason why anyone would want to coach Atlanta is their talent. Not many teams can offer the roster Atlanta can. If you bring in the right quarterback, this offense is primed to be a 30 point machine every week. With Kyle Pitts and Drake London catching passes, as well as Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson in the backfield, this offense can be dangerous if used correctly.

With the right coordinator this defense has the pieces to be a dangerous unit when playing from ahead. Starting with Grady Jarrett who can anchor this defense at the nose. What better coach to maximize its potential than the mastermind of exploiting mismatches than Bill Belichick?

It certainly wouldn’t hurt his desire to be there knowing some of his former players are already on board to help teach the culture of accountability he will want to install. Cordarelle Patterson and Jonnu Smith both have played under Belichick before and would likely welcome him as their new head coach given the opportunity to do so.

We all heard the numerous complaints about how Arthur Smith misused, or flat out ignored talented offensive players despite being a supposed offensive mind. The former tight end coach couldn’t figure out how to use a generational talent at tight end in Kyle Pitts, and for some bizarre reason thinks it’s cute to lineup Bijan Robinson as a tight end near the goal line.

Potential Members of his Staff

The most interesting part about this scenario is Josh McDaniels and Bill O’Brien, his former OC’s, and Mike Vrabel, and potentially Matt Patricia are currently available so in theory he’s got potential coordinators at the ready as well. Selling Atlanta on that trio of coaches wouldn’t be hard. Maybe Belichick retains Marquise Williams as Special Teams coordinator after a solid season from his unit.

Some other coaches he is likely very familiar with; Frank Bush who spent 2017-2020 coaching in the AFC East, and coached in the AFC for over 20 years. He is a highly respected linebackers coach with experience as a defensive coordinator as well. Bush also was the only coach retained under Arthur Smith from the previous regime.

Jerry Gray was the defensive coordinator in Buffalo from 2001-2005 right as Belichick was hired as New England’s head coach. He is a defensive back guru in the NFL, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him retained by whoever the next coach is. I could see Gray retained as defensive backs coach, passing game coordinator or assistant head coach.

Dave Huxtable prior to being hired by the Falcons, was coaching under Nick Saban. Coach Saban is a longtime friend and confidant of Bill Belichick. This connection to Saban could be enough for Belichick to retain Huxtable on his new staff in his role as Senior Defensive Analyst.

Nick Perry the assistant wide receivers coach is also another former Saban assistant. He spent the first four years of his coaching career there. He very easily could be retained in a number of roles given his background as a defensive back in the NFL, and an offensive coach as of late. He could remain in his current position or move over and assist the defensive backs coach.

Reason Number Three

Resources. Arthur Blank and the Falcons will stop at nothing to finally bring a Super Bowl victory to Atlanta. They have appeared in the big game once with Blank at the helm and suffered a loss, which came in embarrassing fashion to Belichick. I’m positive that’s fresh in his memory.

Blank was once burnt badly by hiring Bobby Petrino who resigned prematurely, but this hasn’t stopped him. Blank has continued to swing at big fish coaches any time he has had an opportunity, and this could be his chance to land the BIGGEST coaching fish there is. No one has the resume Belichick has at this point and any team hiring him knows he expects a championship mindset top to bottom.

Weighing Options

Belichick knows he’s coaching on limited time going forward. He knows he doesn’t have the time or patience for a full rebuild, and the Falcons aren’t in need of one. They’re essentially a quarterback away from being competitors. He knows he’s enjoyed a long run of success, and part of it was due to the resources he had in New England.

Looking at the other openings, you have two that were vacated by former Belichick assistants in Tennessee and Las Vegas, and I would assume both are hesitant to go back to the same coaching tree for their next hire. Carolina already has a quarterback and is highly unlikely to move on, nor do they hold the draft capitol to make a move up the board.

The Commanders seemingly have a quarterback in place, and already hired a new GM from the 49ers. Seattle likely isn’t looking to go from one elder statesman at Head Coach to another, and likely has their sights set on a former Seattle assistant coach. This leaves Atlanta, and the Los Angeles Chargers as likely destinations. The one catch with LA, is he wouldn’t get the chance to choose his quarterback. Justin Herbert isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. However coaching Herbert could be attractive enough for Belichick at this point that he chooses the Chargers job over all else available. Let’s not forget, there’s still time for more jobs to open up.

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