Is Sam Darnold Poised for Success IF he Starts for Minnesota Vikings?

Sam Darnold has been called a lot of things since entering the NFL, but the main title he has taken on recently has been Bust. As a former first round pick the NFL expectations are very high, and the leash is short. Darnold now serves as an example of exactly that.

38 Starts

Thirty Eight starts is what Darnold got with the Jets before the team traded him and moved forward without him. During that three season stretch, he completed just under 60% of his passes en route to 8,097 yards, 45 touchdowns to 39 interceptions. This breaks down to 213 yards per game and a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio. One of his best assets were his legs; he ran 114 times for 417 yards and 5 touchdowns but also fumbled 20 total times per profootballreference.com.

His best season came in his second year when he set career-highs for completion rate, passing completions, attempts, yards, and touchdowns. He also produced a 7-6 record.

Let’s Take a Closer Look at this Season

This was the first year under Adam Gase a man who rose to the Head Coaching ranks due to his work in Denver as an offensive coordinator. Dowell Loggains was his offensive coordinator and quarterback coach at the time.

In week one Darnold was called on to throw the ball 41 times, completing 28 for 175 yards 1 touchdown and no interceptions while being sacked 4 times in a game the Jets lost by one point. He would miss the next 3 games returning to an 0-4 team that had scored a combined 23 points in 3 games. He would play the Cowboys and win the Jets first game after a 23 of 32 performance that netted him 338 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, also losing a fumble but did so on his way to 24 points.

The following week there was no excuses to be made for Darnold’s abysmal play as he completed just 11 of 32 passes for 86 yards and 4 interceptions on his way to a 33-0 blow out by the Patriots. The following week was only mildly better when he threw 2 interceptions. Realistically this two game stretch would be the only outlier in an otherwise impressive season.

From this point forward Darnold threw 14 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions in 9 games. He compiled 2,207 passing yards and added 64 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns with two lost fumbles. It was like for the first time Darnold felt comfortable at the NFL level. This would make sense given he had at this point acclimated to the new offense that came with Gase and Loggains in his second season. While other rookies across the league were progressing in the system they had been drafted into, Darnold was essentially a rookie all over again.

Gase Regime Falls Apart

In 2020 the wheels began to fall off of the Jets and blame could be placed on several people including Darnold. This was arguably the worst season of his career to this point. Keep in mind as of right now, heading into season three of his career Darnold had started 26 games, thrown 855 passes, completing 59.8% of his passes for 5,889 yards 36 touchdowns to 28 interceptions.

After barely having a run game in 2019, it got even worse in 2020 when Bell would get injured playing in just two games and producing just 74 yards rushing. The Jets went to a running back by committee approach, headlined by 37 year old Frank Gore, and 22 year-old LaMichael Perine, we also saw Josh Adams and Ty Johnson get involved. Two years, and zero 1,000 yard rushers. In fact the five backs listed combined for just 1,296 yards, or 76 yards per game from the top five running backs on the roster.

With the lack of a rushing attack, Darnold was asked to take on more of an onus on being a run threat as well. He would run 4 more times playing in one less game in 2020. Not a single receiver that was targeted over 19 times managed a catch rate over 70% on the season either. Facing arguably the worst conditions he had so far in terms of talent, Darnold seemed to regress. This resulted in a career low in passing attempts, yards, touchdowns, and touchdown to interception ratio.

Last Season Amidst some turmoil at the quarterback position we still saw Jefferson top 1,000 receiving yards, while Hockensen, and Addison both managed to add over 900 yards themselves. The Vikings saw four different starting quarterbacks play in 2023, and still managed to have to account for 30 touchdowns, 19 interceptions, and 4,700 yards. It’s safe to say Darnold is more prepared to start, and more talented than Nick Mullens, the “Passtronaut” Joshua Dobbs, or Jarren Hall at this point, and that is precisely why we see Minnesota sign him. Knowing Cousins was no longer the answer, meant Minnesota needed a quarterback they could lean on if they were unable to select the future face of the franchise in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Four HC’s, Four OC’s, and Three QB Coaches in Five Seasons

After 2020, Adam Gase was fired, and his staff went with him. This led to Darnold’s third head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback coach. In 2021 he had another rough season, as he was traded to Carolina under Matt Rhule, Joe Brady, and Sean Ryan. Midway through 2020 Brady was fired, the Panthers would retain Darnold for 2022, but fire Rhule after five games. Meaning Darnold now had served under four head coaches, four offensive coordinators, and three quarterbacks coaches in just five seasons. Spoiler alert…this trend didn’t stop there.

Looking at 2023 he hit free agency for the first time and got to choose his next home, he very intelligently chose to sign with the San Francisco 49ers. Although this meant learning yet another new scheme, it meant doing so under a coach regarded as an offensive mastermind in Kyle Shanahan. He would be a part of a roster that made it to a Super Bowl as well. More importantly he still got to suit up and start 1 game for the 49ers.

Collectively he managed to complete just over 60% of his passes for 297 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He didn’t hesitate to push the ball downfield either with a long of 48 yards.

Minnesota is the Most Talented Offense he has had a Chance to Start for

Minnesota may no longer have Dalvin Cook but they just signed Aaron Jones, to pair with Ty Chandler, Cam Akers, and Miles Gaskin to make a fairly talented running back room. At wide receiver Justin Jefferson might be the best in the league and is certainly better than anyone Darnold has ever played with. Tj Hockensen is also the most talented tight end he has ever had and it’s not even close. Jordan Addison looks like a solid number two WR if not a number one waiting for his chance to be the guy. Behind Jefferson and Addison, the Vikings have Brandon Powell who had a solid season as the 4th option behind Kj Osborne that left for New England.

I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Vikings draft another wideout in this years’ draft process. Brandon Powell is a one-time Super Bowl winner with the Rams who made an impression on the Vikings long before signing with them. In December of 2021 Powell returned a punt 61 yards to the house against the Vikings to clinch a win. This play must have stuck with the Vikings, who went on to hire Kevin O’Connell from the Rams, and later would sign Powell for 2023 as well. While he can be an efficient option in the passing game and return game, I would be surprised to see Minnesota pass on adding talent at the position to secure a job for a journeyman wideout.

Coaching Staff Should Help Darnold Feel Comfortable

The coaching staff is led by Kevin O’Connell a former quarterback, and quarterback coach. With offensive coordinator Wes Phillips, and Josh McCown as the quarterback coach. Keep in mind Darnold and McCown spent time together with the Jets in 2018 when Darnold was a rookie. While McCown was Darnold’s backup at the time, and not his coach, he was essentially serving as a player coach for the last five years of his career.

Having McCown as his mentor shouldn’t be overlooked, as I believe that will be significant for Darnold to feel comfortable in Minnesota. Darnold narrowly missed working with McCown in Carolina as he was hired as the QB Coach for the 2023 season. Another reason Darnold should feel comfortable and confident in Minnesota is the system he will run which will essentially be a variation of the Shanahan offense he learned last season.

O’Connell, and Phillips are both products of Sean McVay’s system. As we all know before Shanahan left Washington McVay was his right hand man. This will speed up the process of acclimating to the offensive scheme and hopefully set Darnold up for real success.

Final Thoughts on Darnold in Minnesota

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Darnold have a great year with the Vikings reviving his career and potentially earning a long term starting job with Minnesota or another team impressed by his performance in 2025 and beyond. There is always still the possibility that the Vikings view him as a place holder for a rookie to be named in late April’s NFL Draft, but I have an overwhelming feeling we see Darnold start in 2024. I would go one step further to say I expect Darnold to have a career year, and borderline Pro-bowl season.

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