MLB 2024 Divisional Outlook: 2024 All Star Break Edition

This has been a wild MLB season

And we’re just getting started. This year has been bonkers and defied all our predictions, so it’s time for a redo. Here at the all-star break, we’re going to update our predictions on who is going to win each division while assessing the contenders and pretenders heading down the stretch.

AL East: Home to the heavyweights

In the AL East, there are 3 potential contenders to win the division. Baltimore has played solid ball, but they’ve been hot and cold. They finish the first half in first place, which is good, but they are barely ahead of the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers have been one of the best American League teams, but will they come into their own when the playoff push comes? Boston has been sneaky good as well, don’t count them out of this race.

Are the wheels falling off the Rays’ train? They haven’t looked up to snuff and are 4th place. The Blue Jays may sell talent off to the rest of the MLB, considering that they are last place. Being so far back is a death sentence, and the Jays have talent to sell off. Neither of these teams look like they have the capability to knock off Baltimore or New York.

Division Winner Prediction: Baltimore

AL Central: Not as bad as we thought?

The AL Central looked to be the dumping grounds for the MLB’s worst teams heading into the season, but they surprised everyone by producing more mediocrity than garbage. Cleveland has steadily been a top team in the MLB this year. Minnesota has sat ahead of .500 for a while, but haven’t looked like a top MLB team this year. Kansas City has surprised many this season while staying around .500.

Detroit’s torrid start hasn’t led to much winning. With a record below .500, the Tigers haven’t been able to play up to their potential. However, they have played better as of late. Maybe signs of a potential comeback? The White Sox are one of the worst teams in all of baseball. Of all the predictions we made, we were spot on with saying Chicago would be terrible.

Division Winner Prediction: Cleveland

AL West: Does anyone want to win this division?

The Seattle Mariners have been such a weird team this season. As of the break, they lead the division, and have been among the top American League teams this season. But their offense is among the most pitiful in the MLB. While pitching carries them, it’s easy to see Houston taking them down. After a slow start, the Astros now sit a few games over .500, and could be dangerous for the division crown. The defending champs have looked so mediocre, the Rangers are below .500 and sit 5 games back.

The bottom of this division doesn’t feature anything surprising. The Angels haven’t been the same without Shohei Ohtani, and have looked below average all year. The Oakland Athletics unfortunately look like they’ll be packing their bags and heading out of town, so now they have very little to play for. Other than the occasional hot streak, the A’s remain terrible.

Division Winner Prediction: Houston

NL East: Back to being elite

I severely underrated the NL East heading into this season. As of now, they look like one of the best divisions in the MLB. The top of the division features the most powerful offense in baseball with the Philadelphia Phillies. They sit alone atop the MLB, unrivaled. The Atlanta Braves have dealt with so many injuries, it’s hard to see them coming back and taking the division crown. The Mets started terribly, but after a stadium stunt that featured McDonald’s mascot Grimace throw out the first pitch, New York has surged over .500, and would be in the playoffs if they started today.

The bottom of the division still stayed true to the predictions, Washington has been a mediocre team just trying to develop their young talent. The Marlins are one of the MLB’s worst teams. They’ve fallen to the point where they could be selling off franchise players at the deadline.

Division Winner Prediction: Philadelphia

NL Central: Mediocrity as a baseball division

In Spring Training, I called the NL Central the most “normal” division, and so far it has been. All teams are hovering around .500, creating the tightest division race between every team. Milwaukee has pulled ahead in the race, as Christian Yelich has become of MLB’s most underrated stars. The St. Louis Cardinals have figured out how to remain in contention for the playoffs, they are 4.5 games back but a hot run late in the season could push them over the edge. The Pirates development has gone well, despite sitting at .500, Paul Skenes has electrified the MLB.

The Reds have been incredibly disappointing. Despite stars like Elly De La Cruz and Jonathan India, they sit in 4th place. Will they be able to play up to their potential? The Cubs offense has become terrible and Shota Imanaga has fallen off a cliff. Despite being our prediction to win the division, they look more like they will be in the basement of the division- with a catch. They’re only 8.5 games back.

Division Winner Prediction: Milwaukee

NL West: An absolute disappointment

The Dodgers have been really good this year- that much was to be expected. However, they sit only at 56 wins. Despite that, they are the clear favorite to stay and win the division. Arizona has been quiet, sitting just around .500 and not really threatening the Dodgers. However, their miracle run last year is proof that you shouldn’t count them out. San Diego is still a solid team on paper, but they haven’t been world beaters. The Padres are an average Wild Card contender.

San Francisco has done well, but sit in 4th place. They are not in any position to compete, so it’s possible we see them become sellers at the deadline. Colorado is terrible as usual, but what else is new? This team is sad to watch and one of the worst MLB teams with no clear path to win in the future.

Division Winner Prediction: Los Angeles

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