This past offseason the Atlanta Falcons were aggressive in rebuilding their quarterback position. First, they made the move to sign Kirk Cousins one of the most accomplished veteran signal callers on the market to a 4 year $180,000,000 contract, then they followed this up by selecting Michael Penix in the first round. The latter move caught Cousins off guard and left him slightly confused about his role for the Falcons long term.
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Kirk Cousins Doesn’t Deal in Hypotheticals
Cousins made a point to say “I don’t deal in hypotheticals” when asked if he would have signed with Atlanta in hindsight, but the overwhelming thought was that the draft pick left him looking over his shoulder. Some pointed to his contract which left his rights in Atlanta’s control until he was 40 years old at an average of $45,000,000 per year as a reason why Cousins shouldn’t be worried. Others pointed to the fact that this deal was heavily backloaded with only $65,000,000 of the deal due in the first two seasons as a sign that he would never see the final two years of his contract with Atlanta.
About 75% of the way through his first season in Atlanta Kirk “Two Chains” Cousins is looking more like Kirk “I Can’t Move the Chains” Cousins. They say quarterbacks make their money on third down, and so far the offense for the Falcons has converted 35% of their third down attempts good enough for 23rd in the league according to ESPN.com. They have a -6 turnover ratio and currently stand 20th in points scored at 257 points having allowed 291. Only 17 of their 27 touchdowns have come through the air with Cousins currently holding a near 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio with 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
Lack of Offensive Improvement Could Spell the End of the Kick Cousins Era in Atlanta
The thought for the Falcons when they signed Cousins was that his veteran presence would improve upon the offensive output of the past few seasons in Atlanta. So far, it has not amounted to the drastic improvement they had hoped. The dual-threat ability of Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder had led to 17 passing touchdowns over a full season, but they both contributed 4 or more touchdowns on the ground as well.
This led to a double-digit output in rushing touchdowns the past two seasons and a more run-heavy ball control-style offense. In 2022 the Falcons scored 365 points, allowing 386 points, while in 2023 they scored 321 points and allowed 373 points. To match their 2022 mark they would need to score 109 points and 64 points to match 2023 with 5 games remaining. They are on pace to score 107, bringing their total to 364 points, under what Marcus Mariota achieved just two seasons ago while making $6,750,000 a far cry from the $25,000,000 Cousins will make for the Falcons this season. Not what the Falcons had in mind when doling out his contract this offseason.
At 6-6 in the worst division in football, the Falcons are still very much in the midst of the playoff race, but scoring just 21 points per game and allowing 24 can they compete with teams like Philadelphia, Detroit, Minnesota, and Washington? Let alone Tampa Bay, Seattle, or anyone in the AFC Playoff race?
The answer is a resounding no. The question quickly shifts to if they can’t compete in the playoffs is it time to turn the page to Michael Penix who by the way is another dual-threat passer that can help aid the defense by controlling the clock more at times and escaping some of the pressure that has gotten the best of Cousins? My answer to this is yes, the Falcons need to move on and cut bait from an overpriced soon-to-be 37-year-old quarterback who has produced mediocre, at best, results.
Devil You Know, No Longer Better than the Devil You Don’t
We may not know what Penix will become at the NFL level but what we do know is it can’t be far off what Cousins has done while making less than a fifth of what the Falcons are paying Cousins. The Falcons had seemingly planned an exit strategy in case they move on from Cousins after the 2025 season, but his play has forced the Falcons to consider expediting that transition. I believe even if the Falcons are in playoff contention and believe Cousins provides the best chance to win now, the long-term dividends that playing Penix now could pay, may be worth the sacrifice upfront, even if it means missing the playoffs in 2024.
Over the last three games alone the Falcons have scored just 36 total points with outputs of 17 against the Saints, 6 against Denver, and 13 against the Chargers. If this continues what benefit is there to starting Cousins?
Looking at this Year’s Rookie Class
We have seen a solid run by multiple other first-round picks from the 2024 NFL Draft Class.
- Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
- Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
- Drake Maye, New England Patriots
- Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
- JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
- Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Of these six signal callers only Penix, and McCarthy have not played significant snaps to this point, and McCarthy suffered a season ending injury before the 2024 season kicked off. Penix remains an enigma, but by the Falcons own decision, while the Vikings were forced to leave McCarthy on the shelf, and in the process have gotten solid play from Sam Darnold.
Even Caleb Williams who has received his share of criticism this season has played well enough to produce nearly as many touchdowns, and less than half the interceptions with 14 tds, and 5 interceptions, than Cousins has for the Falcons. All while adding 378 yards on the ground, to the 0 net rushing yards Cousins has provided for the Falcons.
Jayden Daniels has Washington Commanders fans hyped up about the future of their team for the first time in years. He has produced a stellar rookie season and stands out as the most productive quarterback on this list. Daniels has thrown 15 touchdowns, to 5 interceptions adding 590 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns.
Drake Maye has started 8 games throwing 11 touchdowns to 8 interceptions, adding 345 rushing yards and 1 touchdown. He may have thrown nearly as many touchdowns as he has interceptions, but he is also a rookie in an offense lacking top-flight talent.
Bo Nix was the last quarterback selected in the first round and has already shown he could be a solid player long-term. As it stands he has 16 touchdowns to 6 interceptions. He has displayed above-average mobility with 300 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns.
Comparing Quarterbacks
Both the Broncos, and Commanders have 8-5 records, the Bears are 4-8, and the Patriots are 3-10 but have won 2 of those games with Maye at the helm. Jayden Daniels has changed the dynamic of Washington’s offense with his athleticism and escapability, and Penix Jr. might be the more athletic player when compared side by side.
Having run a 4.45 to Daniels’ 4.50, and putting up a 39-inch vertical Penix was drafted and immediately became one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the league. Adding an RPO element to Atlanta’s offense could benefit the passing game by freezing the defense and forcing them to dedicate one player as a spy on Penix. This would help open up passing lanes, and could even free up the rushing attack with Robinson and Algier the beneficiaries of the defense being forced to account for the quarterback.
If nothing else an extended audition would assist Atlanta in their evaluation of Penix heading into 2025, providing more clarity at QB1 before what could be a make-or-break year already for the new regime. I applaud the Falcons for sticking to their initial plan of sitting Penix for a year but there comes a time when the juice may not be worth the squeeze of waiting, and I for one wonder if the Falcons are holding Penix back by making him wait until 2025.
Stat Credit: Profootballreference.com
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