Are the Texans Preventing Cj Stroud From Being Elite in 2024?

The “regression” of Cj Stroud has been one of the most talked about subjects among NFL fans, analysts, and content creators alike. The question for this article is simple, is this statistical regression Stroud’s fault or a product of his surroundings? Lets dive into this one using profootballreference.com, pff.com and their premium stats to get a better picture of what is going on.

Cj Stroud, Rookie of the Year

Cj Stroud was one of the most productive rookie quarterbacks in history after being selected second overall in 2023. Starting 15 of 17 possible games he attempted 499 passes, completing 319 of them for a completion rate of 63.9%. He compiled 4,108 yards which broke down to a league-leading 273.9 yards per game. He tossed 23 touchdowns, to just 5 interceptions, while adding 39 carries for 167 yards and 3 touchdowns. He did have an issue with fumbling, dropping the ball 8 times losing 4, while being sacked 38 times.

Surrounded by playmakers like Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and Noah Brown, the Texans won their division leading to a playoff berth. They didn’t stop there, defeating the Cleveland Browns in a 45-14 blowout. This wound up being one of Cj Stroud’s best performances in 2023 as he completed 16 of 21 passes for 274 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

The following week they faced the Lamar Jackson-led Baltimore Ravens. Playing against a much better defense, and a run-heavy ball-control offense the Ravens dominated this game and Stroud had a pedestrian outing. Finishing 19 of 33 for 175 yards 0 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and rushing 3 times for 9 yards in a 34-10 loss, the Ravens defense shut out the offense entirely, with Steven Sims scoring the Texans’ only touchdown on a punt return.

Cj Stroud finished the season with a 10-7 record during the 2023 season. Missing the week 15 and 16 games due to injury. He would collect six 300+ passing yard games, including a career-high 470 yards and 5 touchdowns in a 39-37 shoot out against the Buccaneers in week 9. This game actually began a streak of 4 straight 300+ yard games.

Cj Stroud Key Statistics

Looking at how Cj Stroud played in 2023, the first stats that stick out are being sacked 38 times and pressured 219 times in 17 games on 618 drop-backs. His pressure to sack rate was 17.4%, and he was forced to scramble 25 times. He had an average time to throw of 2.93 seconds. He threw the ball away 23 times and had 18 turnover-worthy throws.

He produced 26 big time throws but had a 2.8% turnover worthy play rate with an adjusted depth of target of 9.3 yards per attempt. His adjusted completion rate was 74.2% accounting for the 26 drops his receivers were credited with. He had a high number of batted passes with 9 but was only hit as he threw 3 times.

When looking at what Cj Stroud has dealt with in 2024 the picture begins to become clearer as to what the issue is and why Stroud is being blamed for a supposed regression. In 2024 his average time to throw has barely increased from 2.93 to 3.02 even though he has been forced to scramble 37 times an increase. While his time to throw increased by 3%, the amount of times he was forced to scramble increased by 60%.

His adjusted depth of target is 8.7 yards per attempt in 2024. He has still produced 23 big time throws, and only 16 turnover worthy throws. Cj Stroud has seen receivers drop 22 passes, thrown away only 21 passes, and seen just 6 passes batted as opposed to the 9 of last season. Cj Stroud also has been hit as he threw 9 times versus 6 last season. All of this to say his adjusted completion rate has fallen just 2.2%, and his unadjusted rate is down just 2.3%. Is it Cj Stroud, or is it his supporting cast?

Offensive Line Woes

Heading into 2024, the Texans looked to transition to younger players at a few positions. Most notably on the offensive line.

At right tackle they moved on from veteran George Fant. Fant played 1004 snaps at right tackle, proving to be a better pass blocker than he was a run blocker. He was rated at a 96.7% efficiency, but gave up 28 hurries, 3 sacks and 4 hits along the way. His overall grade was 61.8 with a 51.9 run block grade, and 68.7 pass block grade, the third highest pass block grade of his career. He was called for 4 penalties.

They also let go of Josh Jones. While he was not a starter he was a valuable depth piece seeing snaps at left tackle (156), left guard (63), and right tackle (14). He produced a 96.5% efficiency, allowing 5 hurries, 3 hits, and 1 sack in a total of 152 pass blocking snaps. He was penalized 5 times. His overall grade was 49.6, with a 52.2 run-blocking grade, and 55.8 pass-blocking grade.

Injuries have taken away Shaq Mason at right guard, Juice Scruggs a second round pick in 2023 at center, and Jaylon Thomas a depth piece at tackle/guard.

Rotation on Offensive Line Creating More Problems than Solutions

This has resulted in a revolving starting lineup that has seen younger players like Blake Fisher, Kenyon Green, Kendrick Green, Jarrett Patterson, and Zach Thomas play significant snaps, all guys who had previously been backups at best. These five players have combined to allow 37 hurries, 15 sacks, and 18 hits on Cj Stroud in 1,034 passing snaps played.

Juice Scruggs was moved from center where his best play has come; allowing 7 hurries, 2 hits and 3 sacks in 8 games while playing 350 pass blocking snaps to left guard. He played four games at left guard before getting injured, where he allowed 6 hurries 1 hit and 2 sacks in 161 pass blocking snaps.

Shaq Mason was one of the most reliable linemen Houston had last season, seeing 1,221 snaps all at right guard a position he has played exclusively since his rookie season. He had allowed 32 hurries, 1 hit, and 3 sacks all last season. This year he has played nearly 200 less pass blocking snaps allowing 21 hurries, 5 hits, and 8 sacks. A career high in sacks allowed.

Howard initially lined up at right tackle before shifting to left guard seeing 625 pass blocking snaps. He has allowed 29 hurries, 2 hits, and 4 sacks. Ironically the best games he has played throughout his career have been at left guard but the injuries and losses in free agency led Houston to put Howard at right tackle once again. Since shifting back to left guard he has allowed just 3 hurries, 1 hit, and 1 sack in 3 games. He has not allowed more than 1 hurry a game after allowing 2 or more in 7 games at right tackle.

The only offensive lineman that has stood up to the challenge this year has been Laremy Tunsil. Tunsil has played left tackle exclusively seeing 638 pass blocking snaps, allowing 14 hurries, 3 hits, and 2 sacks.

Outside of cycling practice squad players and moving current active roster players to different positions, the Texans made no concerted effort to try and correct these issues. I could see a scenario where after this season the Texans part ways with offensive line coach Chris Strausser, assistant offensive line coach Cole Popovich, or offensive assistant Jarrod Jones, another former line coach on staff. Considering they have more experience in these coaching positions than most teams the development or lack thereof has to be on the coaches.

Changes at Skill Positions

The next big issue that I can point to having plagued this team are the changes at wide receiver and running back that have led to a lack of chemistry, inability to get open, and lack of depth when injuries occurred.

Injuries have been far and away the biggest factor as the Texans lost Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs to injuries. Robert Woods missed 2 games, Collins missed 5 games, Diggs will have missed 9 games, and Dell will have missed 3 games by the end of the year. Dalton Keene was placed on injured reserve before the season began. Joe Mixon has also missed 3 games early in the year. They have moved on from Devin Singletary, Noah Brown, Steven Sims, Quintez Cephus, and opted to put Andrew Beck on the practice squad.

Last season, Cj Stroud had 11 players receive double digit targets, of those 11 players five of them had a catch rate of 73.4% or higher, and 3 of them topped 15 yards per reception. In 2024, he has 10 players that have logged double digit targets, with only 2 players topping 71.4% and only Stefon Diggs has managed to match that 73.4% catch rate. Of the 15 pass-catchers on the team with at least 1 target, only 1 player, Nico Collins, has topped 15 yards per reception.

This offense has failed to stretch the field, and they have failed to produce a reliable receiver for Cj Stroud other than Diggs who has not played since week 8. The Texans were 6-2 with Diggs starting, they are 3-5 without him.

Politics Over Pass-Blocking?

They also decided to turn to Dare Ogunbowale over Dameon Pierce as the second string running back in 2024. Pierce is by grade, their best pass blocking running back on the roster, and he has been relegated to third string and has been out snapped by Ogunbowale. Ogunbowale, has allowed 7 hurries, 1 hit, and 1 sack in 76 pass blocking snaps.

In 2023 Ogunbowale was among the worst on the roster as well, allowing 2 sacks, and 2 hurries in just 28 snaps as a pass blocker. During his entire three year career, Pierce has been a pass blocker 85 times, allowing just 3 hurries, 1 hit, and 2 sacks. In his last two seasons, he has blocked on just 30 snaps, allowing 1 pressure. 1 hit. Something tells me Cj Stroud would rather have the 235 pound Pierce in the backfield blocking for him than the 205 pound Ogunbowale.

Before anyone points to their abilities catching passes, Pierce has outperformed there as well with an 81.8% catch rate, versus the 72% catch rate Ogunbowale has on the exact same amount of targets during their time with Houston. In a situation where your offensive line is struggling, and your quarterback is facing more pressure than ever before, why would you not make the very logical decision to keep a bigger, better pass blocker, and more reliable receiver in the backfield more often?

Running the Ball More Is Not the Answer

Many will point to adding Joe Mixon as a reason why the Texans should lean more on the run game, but I believe this is not currently the answer to the problems Houston faces. Last season, the Texans ran the ball 444 times for 1,687 yards and 10 touchdowns, an average of 3.7 yards per carry. They threw the ball 592 times, a 57% to 43% ratio this is while the Texans offense averaged 12.3 yards gained per completion.

This season they have passed 570 times to 434 rushing attempts. They have accumulated 1,909 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. While their yards per carry have risen by .7 yards, their average yards per completion has fallen by 1.2 yards. While their pass to run ratio has fallen closer to a 50/50 margin at 56% pass to 44% run, this minimal change has not added up to more average yards gained per attempt.

They have watched their production per play fall by half a yard in 2024. Running the ball at a higher frequency is in turn allowing defenses to further stack the box, while shading extra attention to the one potential world beater they have in the passing game, Nico Collins. The loss of depth at wide receiver around Collins has allowed defenses to lean further and further into playing more man coverage on the second and third reads in the passing games.

When looking at this season versus last season, the Texans have been blitzed 1.3% and pressured 2.4% more in 2024 than they were in 2023. Since losing Stefan Diggs, you can literally see that teams have been able to put more pressure on Cj Stroud, daring Houston’s wideouts to beat them deep with less coverage on the backend. In the first 8 games of the season, Cj Stroud was pressured a total of 111 times.

Removing week 18 from the equation given he attempted just 6 passes before leaving the game, Cj Stroud was pressured 122 times in the second half of the season. Including two games in which he was pressured 21 or more times. Cj Stroud was also sacked just 22 of 52 times in the first half of the season including 2 or less times in 4 games. In the second half of the season he has been sacked 30 times, including just 1 game with 2 or less sacks.

His first game without Diggs, the Jets defense pressured him a total of 25 times, collecting 8 sacks, in week 16 he was pressured 21 times with the Chiefs getting home only twice, and in week 17 he was pressured 14 times with 5 sacks. His average time to throw has also dramatically risen since Diggs exited the lineup.

With receivers unable to get open or beat man coverage, Cj Stroud has been forced to 21 times versus only 16 in the first half of the season. The same could be said for turnover worthy plays, and big time throws. He produced 7 turnover worthy plays, 12 big time throws, and 109 1^st downs in the first half of the season. In the second half of the season, it was 9 turnover worthy plays, 11 big time throws, and only 92 1^st downs.

Help in the Passing Game Must Take Priority in 2025 if Texans Want Vintage Cj Stroud

No matter how you slice it, the pass blocking, and lack of playmakers at wide receiver has directly caused the downfall of Cj Stroud in 2024. Some of these moves may seem insignificant but coupled with one another they have added up to a rotating cast of pass catchers, and spotty at best pass blocking from the backfield on top of a dramatic drop off on the offensive line.

A nearly constant rotation at offensive line has forced the unit to adapt on the fly all season long, and created a disaster in the passing game, which has directly contributed to the increase in scrambling, time to throw, pressures, and sacks. Cj Stroud has taken more hits and doesn’t have the field stretching pass catchers he could lean on last season to keep the defenses honest. If the Texans want to get Cj Stroud back to his peak, they must focus on fixing the pass blocking and add depth in the passing game.

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