Overview

For the 12th time in NHL history, there is a Stanley Cup Finals rematch, the 5th such case in the expansion era and the first since 2008-09. In hockey, winning a rematch is hard, as there can be the revenge factor on the back of the heads of the team members that lost the first match. It can also be harder than dealing with the financial implications of making it all the way to the Finals.

Last summer, Brandon Montour took his talents to the Seattle Kraken after winning the Stanley Cup with the Panthers, and both of Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg, two young pieces to the Oilers’ core, were successfully offer sheeted by the St. Louis Blues. Dealing with the physical toll of the playoffs is another thing.

Stars like Connor McDavid and Matthew Tkachuk were more prone to injuries after the long playoff runs for their teams and shorter offseasons. Nobody would have blamed either team for being mentally drained from the joy of winning the Cup or the heartbreak of coming up just short.

To overcome all the adversity is one thing, but to repeat as conference champions is another. A year after the Panthers avoided becoming the 5th team to blow a 3-0 series lead and lose (and second to do so in the Finals after the 1942 Detroit Red Wings), they and the Oilers meet again. Last year, the Panthers won the first three games, 11-4 on aggregate. The Oilers won the next three, 18-5 on aggregate, to force the deciding Game 7, where Florida won an instant classic, 2-1, to cap off one of the greatest Stanley Cup Finals of all time.

Now they are back here, in yet another heavyweight tilt, and both teams are better than they were last year. The Oilers, after losing their first two games of the postseason in the first round to the Los Angeles Kings, have since won 12 of their last 14 games, winning four straight against the Kings, downing the Vegas Golden Knights in five games, and recovering from a Game 1 collapse against the Dallas Stars to end them in five.

The Panthers took out their in-state rivals Tampa Bay Lightning in five games, rallied from a 2-0 series deficit to win in seven games against the Toronto Maple Leafs, and won the first three against the Carolina Hurricanes en route to washing them out in five.

Head-to-Head

The Panthers won both of their regular season games against the Oilers this season, 6-5 at Amerant Bank Arena at Sunrise on December 16th and 4-3 at Rogers Place in Edmonton on February 27th.

Both teams showcased their strengths in the two games, with the Oilers boasting their star power and the Panthers boasting their loaded depth. McDavid had four assists in the season series, and Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman had goals in both games. The Panthers had eight skaters finding the back of the net, with top line forwards Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe scoring in both games. Anton Lundell led the way for the “Cats,” with a goal and five points.

Between the pipes, Sergei Bobrovsky got the better of Stuart Skinner in the two games, but neither goaltender stood out, with Bobrovsky stopping 25 of 30 in the first game and 24 of 27 in the second, while Skinner stopped 22 of 28 and 32 of 36, respectively.

At the trade deadline, the Panthers added Seth Jones and Brad Marchand shortly after the second meeting, while the Oilers added Trent Frederic and Jake Walman in the days leading up to the deadline, two months after signing John Klingberg for the rest of the season. Neither team will think back to these regular season showdowns, as they have improved a lot defensively during the playoffs. Is it enough to win the Stanley Cup Finals?

Offense for the Stanley Cup Finals

Edmonton Oilers

It’s already widely known that McDavid is the best player in the NHL. His end-to-end explosiveness with the puck is second to none. As per usual, he leads all postseason scorers, with 26 points through 16 games. His talent is unmatched, he has a penchant for scoring big goals at the biggest times, and is a force on both ends of the ice.

He leads the NHL in shot differential, at +113, and he has helped the Oilers become a complete team with the goal of the franchise’s first Stanley Cup in 35 years. He’s on a mission this year, shown by his play and demeanor. He knows there is unfinished business.

The consensus of where Leon Draisaitl is ranked in the NHL is between 3rd and 5th. But the bottom line is, he is just as scary as McDavid is. His speed, size, and one-timer make him arguably the most complete player in the league. While McDavid gets all the attention, Draisaitl trails McDavid by a single point in the stat sheet while having one more goal. He’s also one of the three finalists for the Hart Trophy as the league MVP in the regular season, and he might be in the conversation for the Conn Smythe Trophy too.

The Oilers were a deep team last year, but they’re even better depth wise this year. Despite flip-flopping between top line left winger and second line center throughout the postseason, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the team’s longest-tenured forward, is the Swiss Army knife that is super versatile and can play in all situations: even strength, power play, and penalty kill.

He’s playing the best hockey of his career, whether he be on McDavid’s line or centering his line. Corey Perry has turned back the clock to his Anaheim Ducks years, where his net-front finishing is enough for Kris Knoblauch to frequently slot him next to McDavid and/or Draisaitl.

Evander Kane just came back in time for the playoffs, but he’s slotted himself as a permanent fixture on the second line left wing. Kasperi Kapanen, claimed off waivers from the Blues in the regular season, showed his wheels and tenacious work ethic, earning him a place on Draisaitl’s right wing. Connor Brown missed Games 4 and 5 with a concussion, but he’s becoming a big-time playoff performer for Edmonton.

Even the defensemen are getting into the action, with Evan Bouchard being the clear-cut no. 1 defenseman. At just 25 years old, he’s a big-time playoff riser with six goals under his belt, and his one-timer is feared across the league.

Florida Panthers

The Panthers don’t have a scorer that can be at the pace with the Oilers’ attack. But the overall attack up and down the lineup has them widely regarded as the deepest team in the league. The second line of Carter Verhaeghe, who has been a perennial playoff performer, Sam Bennett, the heavy-hitting net-front presence who has been at the center of controversy all postseason, and Matthew Tkachuk, one of the driving forces behind the Panthers’ turnaround, took the Conference Finals by storm with a combined eight goals and 20 points.

Aleksander Barkov, the captain of this group and the longest-tenured Panther on the team, continues to be hot with at least five points in each round. Sam Reinhart is more than just Barkov’s right-hand man, but he has grown as a player next to Barkov and continues to elevate his game. Evan Rodrigues is Florida’s own Swiss Army knife, showing himself as a two-way ace, and his 10 points exemplify how deep the Cats’ lineup is, mixing scoring and defense.

The third line of Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell and former Boston Bruin and future Hall-of-Famer Brad Marchand plays like they’re a second line in the NHL. Lundell has been a vital part of the Panthers since his rookie year in 2022, and has been frequently compared to a third line version of Barkov in terms of defense, and impacts the game on both ends of the ice, where he has developed a nice chemistry with his countryman, Luostarinen.

Marchand last won a Cup in 2011 with the Boston Bruins, though back then, he had an entire career ahead of him. Now, he’s 37, and his best days are behind him, but is playing free of pressure and expectations, and fitting beyond what was anticipated, not just on the ice, but also providing Florida with another veteran leader.

This was a team that has established themselves as one of the top teams in the league and one that could be on the verge of a potential dynasty should they win another Stanley Cup, but even after making the Finals three straight years, there are more ways in which the Panthers can surprise people. Look at Aaron Ekblad, the former first overall pick of the 2014 NHL Draft.

His best season came in 2022, where he had 57 points in 61 games, and now he’s playing like his 2022 self all over again. He’s looked very dynamic in the playoffs, with 11 points in 13 games, while Jones, the Panthers’ big trade deadline piece, has settled comfortably filling in the hole left behind by Montour on the second pairing next to Niko Mikkola.

Defense for the Stanley Cup Finals

Edmonton Oilers

In the early stages of McDavid’s career, the Oilers were a fun team to watch, but because of their over-reliance on their offensive talents, they forgot about the defensive aspect of hockey which prevented them from getting to the top. They are still scoring goals in bunches, but the narrative of the team not having defense has completely changed under Kris Knoblauch. They now can win low-scoring games and hold onto leads late. They held the Stars to four third period shots in three of the last four games of the Western Conference Final.

Knoblauch and assistant coach Paul Coffey, the Oilers’ Hall of Fame defenseman who works closely with the team’s defense, have the personnel to match with others, especially since Mattias Ekholm has returned from an injury he suffered in March to protect Bouchard, who has been a mixed bag defensively. In the meantime when Ekholm was out, Brett Kulak filled in admirably next to Bouchard, and even though they had bad puck luck together, he is as effective on his off-side next to Darnell Nurse on the second pair.

Before Kulak slotted next to Nurse, Troy Stecher was Nurse’s usual defensive partner, and the two were solid together throughout the course of the season. Ty Emberson produced similar results on the third pair before getting slotted out. The secret weapon for the Oilers, however, is on the third pairing, which is in name only. Jake Walman, the deadline pickup from the San Jose Sharks after being cast away by the Detroit Red Wings, leads all skaters in +/-, at +12, holding his own at the defensive end and can comfortably carry the puck and win battles along the boards.

John Klingberg’s playing career was in jeopardy after a stint with the Toronto Maple Leafs ended with him in “Robias Island,” and while he was one of the best offensive defensemen in his younger days with the Stars, he put his passing skills to his advantage with clean zone exits.

The big weakness of the Oilers is their penalty kill. They set the bar sky-high last year with a 94.8% penalty kill rate, only giving up four power play goals in the process (three to the Vancouver Canucks, one to Florida). This year, it’s at a paltry 66%, but that may arguably not be the biggest concern for the Oilers against the Panthers. Edmonton’s defensive system is similar to that of the Carolina Hurricanes, where they take away the neutral zone and limit opponents’ time with the puck with quick breakouts, which Florida’s aggressive forecheck took advantage of in the Eastern Conference Final.

Florida Panthers

Ekblad and the tireless shutdown defenseman Gustav Forsling have piled up a lot of tough minutes for the Panthers in the last three postseasons. Despite Ekblad missing three games to separate suspensions, they are still the third-most used defensive pair in the playoffs. In the time that they are together, they’ve shown that they are mobile, do-it-all defensemen, and they’ll be the ideal pairing going up against McDavid. However, in last year’s Stanley Cup Final, they were a -5 and -2, respectively. If there is a formula for stopping McDavid, the NHL should take notes.

Both Mikkola and Jones will get their looks at McDavid and/or Draisaitl too, and they enter the Finals with the 4th-best expected goal share of any duo that has played at least 70 minutes at 5-on-5 this postseason. With the two of them on the ice, the Panthers have outscored their opponents, 12-4. Mikkola is just as big and fast as Jones, throwing his body around, and Jones, at times, was the best player on the ice for the Panthers after an ill-fated tenure with the Chicago Blackhawks where he looked uncomfortable.

The third pairing features Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Kulikov, and they’ve more than held their own. Kulikov is playing reliably well during his second stint with the team, and Schmidt has held his own as the team’s second power play quarterback as the replacement to Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

And then there is the forward group, where Barkov leads the charge being a perennial Selke Trophy contender as the league’s best defensive forward. Reinhart grew his defensive game playing next to Barkov on the top line, and the two complement each other on the defensive end both at 5-on-5 and on the PK.

Lundell dominates his minutes defensively, and he and Luostarinen have similar chemistry with one another as Barkov and Reinhart. The penalty kill is killing off 88% of their penalties, and last year, they allowed just three power play goals from the Oilers’ vaunted power play.

Goaltending for the Stanley Cup Finals

Edmonton Oilers

Stuart Skinner, Edmonton’s hometown hero, bounced back impressively from losing the crease to Calvin Pickard. Ever since he got back the crease in Game 3 of the Vegas series, he pulled off three shutouts and a 6-2 record, with exceptional results. Pickard was good enough to hold the crease between Game 3 of the Kings series and Game 2 of the Vegas series, but ever since he was injured, Skinner was elite, to the tune of a 1.73 GAA and a .931 save percentage.

Pickard returned to the bench in Game 5 against Dallas, and the hope for the Oilers is that Skinner’s play will keep him in the crease. With him locked in, he’s outstanding cutting off angles and even making the toughest saves look easy.

When he’s off his game… yikes. But his mental toughness is one to look up to, as he shook off the nerves of losing the crease and played much better down the stretch. In the combined 23 games after getting the crease back, he put up a combined .920 save percentage and a 1.93 GAA.

Skinner started the playoffs as one of the worst goalies in the league, and many were criticizing the Oilers for not improving goaltending. But he was crucial to the team’s playoff success. Yes, he’s had struggles, but he’s come up bigger at 5-on-5 than his other counterparts, and he had to work for those numbers. His ability to close out games is why the Oilers are in the Finals again.

Florida Panthers

There is only one netminder that has a higher save percentage and lower GAA in his last eight playoff starts: Sergei Bobrovsky. “Playoff Bob” had a very different meaning when he was with the Columbus Blue Jackets and before he had Paul Maurice as his head coach. With Spencer Knight in Chicago now, Florida is riding Bobrovsky the entire way, where he’s posted a 40-19 record, .911 save percentage and a 2.41 GAA since he first entered in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

He may have the lighter analytics than his counterpart in this Finals, but he has the most games played and is the only goalie with at least 10 wins in the playoffs, cementing his status as a future Hall of Famer. His 3.56 goals saved above expected against Carolina was some of his best playoff hockey to date, right after he bounced back from a difficult start against Toronto.

Injuries for the Stanley Cup Finals

Edmonton Oilers

Zach Hyman played a complete game, showing he is the heart and soul of the Oilers in the first three rounds of the playoffs, to the tune of 11 points, a +10 rating and 111 points. Interestingly, he has more hits in the playoffs than he had in the regular season. Unfortunately, his season came to an end when his wrist was broken when he got hit by Mason Marchment.

Viktor Arvidsson was the Oilers’ big name signing in the offseason, and while he had a tough regular season, he got inserted into a line with Vasily Podkolzin and Mattias Janmark. He was good in the closeout game against Dallas. Connor Brown was out for the final two games of the series with an apparent concussion, and Jeff Skinner slotted in, where he finally got his moment in the playoffs with his first career playoff goal. Brown is cleared to return ahead of Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, back in his usual role on the third line with Trent Frederic and Adam Henrique.

Florida Panthers

The scariest part about the Panthers is that they are healthy up and down the lineup. Reinhart briefly exited the lineup for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final against the Hurricanes, with two assists in his return in Game 5. Mikkola and fourth line grinder AJ Greer returned to the lineup, replacing Nico Sturm, who won a Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche in 2022. If there is another injury on the forward core, the trio of Jesper Boqvist, Sturm, or rookie Mackie Samoskevich can be slotted into the lineup.

Storylines for the Stanley Cup Finals

Canadian teams have not won a Stanley Cup in 32 years, and the last team to do so was the Montreal Canadiens in 1993, where they won an NHL-record 10 consecutive overtime games in that year’s playoffs. Ever since, there were six different Canadian teams to lose in the Finals, with five of the seven times being in seven games, including the Oilers twice (2006 and 2024, where they rallied from 3-1 and 3-0 series deficits, respectively, to force a Game 7).

The closest that a Canadian team came to winning the Stanley Cup since then was the 2004 Calgary Flames, who were up 3-2 in their seven-game series to the Tampa Bay Lightning; Calgary ultimately fell in seven games.

Goaltending was a major question mark for a few years, and it was once again the case with Stuart Skinner having a rollercoaster of a regular season. As mentioned before, he lost his crease early in the playoffs after allowing 11 goals in his first two starts, but after allowing four more when he retook the crease after Calvin Pickard was injured during Game 2 of the second round, Skinner has allowed just 10 goals in his next seven starts, with three shutouts, going 6-1.

Connor McDavid not only continues to be the best player of his generation, but he is in line to be one of the greatest players in NHL history. He has accomplished everything that he possibly could in his storied NHL career: Five-time Art Ross Trophy winner, three-time Hart Trophy winner, five-time NHL First All-Star Team, four-time Ted Lindsay Award winner, 2023 Rocket Richard Trophy winner, and last year’s Conn Smythe Trophy winner. The one thing he has to do to cement his legacy is to win a Stanley Cup, and he’s getting a second chance.

On the other side, the Panthers are having a remarkable run in the NHL over the last four years. They won the Presidents’ Trophy in 2022 for getting the league’s best record, and won their first playoff series since 1996. While it ended in a bitter sweep to their in-state rival Tampa Bay Lightning, a coaching change to hiring Paul Maurice and making a high-risk gamble to acquire Matthew Tkachuk have paved the way for three consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances.

They were the last team to make the playoffs in 2023, but eventually ran out of gas in the Final. However, they bounced back and won the Final in 2024. Now they have returned for the third straight year with a chance to repeat, and could potentially construct a dynasty.

Projected Lineups

Edmonton Oilers

Forwards

• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins — Connor McDavid — Corey Perry
• Evander Kane — Leon Draisaitl — Kasperi Kapanen
• Trent Frederic — Adam Henrique — Connor Brown
• Vasily Podkolzin — Mattias Janmark — Viktor Arvidsson
• Extras: James Hamblin, Quinn Hutson, Max Jones, Noah Philp, Derek Ryan, Matt Savoie, Jeff Skinner

Defensemen

• Mattias Ekholm — Evan Bouchard
• Darnell Nurse — Brett Kulak
• Jake Walman — John Klingberg
• Extras: Josh Brown, Connor Carrick, Cam Dineen, Ty Emberson, Philip Kemp, Alec Regula, Troy Stecher

Goaltending

• Starter: Stuart Skinner
• Backup: Calvin Pickard
• Extras: Collin Delia, Olivier Rodrigue

Florida Panthers

Forwards

• Evan Rodrigues — Aleksander Barkov — Sam Reinhart
• Carter Verhaeghe — Sam Bennett — Matthew Tkachuk
• Eetu Luostarinen — Anton Lundell — Brad Marchand
• AJ Greer — Tomáš Nosek — Jonah Gadjovich
• Extras: Rasmus Asplund, Jesper Boqvist, Jesse Puljujärvi, Mackie Samoskevich, Justin Sourdif, Nico Sturm

Defensemen

• Gustav Forsling — Aaron Ekblad
• Niko Mikkola — Seth Jones
• Nate Schmidt — Dmitry Kulikov
• Extras: Michael Benning, Tobias Björnfot, Uvis Balinskis, Matt Kiersted, Jaycob Megna

Goaltenders

• Starter: Sergei Bobrovsky
• Backup: Vitek Vanecek
• Extra: Evan Cormier

Takeaways

This year is essentially Edmonton’s last chance to win a Stanley Cup with the roster that they’ve currently constructed. Draisaitl’s cap hit will go from $8.5 million to $14 million on July 1^st as his eight-year extension kicks in.

Evan Bouchard will get an even pricier pay raise. Kane, who sat out of the regular season on the LTIR, will add another $5.125 million to the cap, and McDavid could very likely get the biggest contract in NHL history by the summer of 2026, where he can start negotiating a new contract on July 1st. Their prospect pipeline has run dry, they’ve invested a lot of money on core players, and the roster is one of the oldest in the league.

The reality of the situation has made the Oilers into an agitated and desperate group. It also has given them an attitude that won’t let anything get in their way. The only thing standing in their way is the best team in the league, showing their depth. The Maple Leafs were minutes away from putting the Panthers down 3-0 in the second round, but a week later, the Panthers sent the reminder that it’s not easy to take them down. Despite finishing under 100 points in the standings, the Panthers reminded the league that they are a better team than they were last year.

Both teams will exploit key weaknesses on the other team: The Panthers will look to take advantage of the Oilers’ penalty kill and the goaltending, even for Skinner outdueling Adin Hill and Jake Oettinger, who were both named to the Four Nations Face-Off rosters for Canada and the United States, respectively. Even for the Panthers having the depth advantage, their leading scorer, Barkov, “only” has 17 points.

On paper, the Panthers have the stronger lineup, but the Oilers’ depth is better than it was last year, even with Hyman being out for the rest of the season. Florida will set the tone with their physical, north-south style that can bring an onslaught, while the Oilers will set the tone with their superstar talent and home ice advantage.

This is not going to be a series that ends quickly, but the feeling is that the Panthers’ dominant stretch on the road and the Oilers’ home ice advantage will cancel each other out. Panthers head coach Paul Maurice may be undefeated in Game 7s in his career (6-0), but just like when Wayne Gretzky saw three of his records broken in a 10-month span, records are meant to be broken. Plus, Edmonton has the revenge factor.

Schedule

• Game 1: at Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB, Wednesday, June 4, 6:00 PM MT
• Game 2: at Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB, Friday, June 6, 6:00 PM MT
• Game 3: at Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL, Monday, June 9, 8:00 PM ET
• Game 4: at Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL, Thursday, June 12, 8:00 PM ET
• Game 5: at Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB, Saturday, June 14, 6:00 PM MT*
• Game 6: at Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL, Tuesday, June 17, 8:00 PM ET*
• Game 7: at Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB, Friday, June 20, 6:00 PM MT*

*if necessary.

The US broadcast will be televised on TNT and truTV, and is available for streaming on Max. The Canadian broadcast will be televised on CBC and Sportsnet in English and TVA Sports in French.

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